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Interest rates - Look out not up

September 12, 2018

As I write this, the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve is speaking on policy and painfully answering the partisan questions of the Senators in front of her. The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is to encourage full employment in the US economy while controlling inflation around their 2% target. With the recent decrease in the unemployment rate and inflation under control, it appears that they been fulfilling their mission. Predicting interest rate has proven to be one of the more difficult tasks for economists. With that being said my opinion is that we experience lower rates for longer than the consensus expects. I believe the interest rates on short-term borrowing are likely to increase with less effect than the longer term issues. The bond market is global and when you compare our 10 year treasuries which had been hovering around 2% lately are compared to a comparable issue from the German government yielding less than .4% our historically low interest rates seem very high. If I was a foreign government looking to put my money in a safe place, I would much prefer a U.S. Treasury yielding more in a strong currency.